Bobbing for Apples: Why the App Store may be heading for a crash

In 1983, the video game market crashed headlong into the ground. The crash was brought about by an excess of poorly developed software - mostly badly implemented knock-offs of successful ideas. Thankfully, recovery was swift, publishers learned that consumers aren't (all) stupid, and now we've come full circle and find ourselves in the era of the App Store, a mechanism that has played a huge part in reinvigorating the single man team so common 30 years ago, and its associated vim. But with the barriers to entry so generously lowered, a torrent of lazy programming was also assured - one which has all but drowned the market with plentiful bespoke and copycat tat. Though increasingly mitigated by improving search functionality, the App Store remains a precarious place to navigate for the uninitiated.

Apple’s asperous approval process doesn’t help: so flustered are they over the removal of crudity and ‘pinch to zoom’ mechanics from third party submissions, there appears to be no concern whatsoever for the proliferation of libellously comparable, bug ridden, or simply unfinished software on their servers. Spend some time with Karnak Attack or Kick-A*s: The Game (their star, not I Am The Manta’s) and you’d be forgiven for vowing never to pay for another App again. One would hope that the discerning audience Apple aims to court with their a*pirational products would be somewhat less offended by profanity or mammarial exposure than they would by the loss of even 59p to yet another game unfit for release.

Of course, canting from his soapbox, Jobs might well point out that user reviews, featured apps, and Lite versions offset the risk of a duff purchase, and for the most part he’d be right. But both of the aforementioned app disasters were featured, and neither offer a Lite version. Despite such disparity, the mine field can be navigated easily by a seasoned gamer, aware of shovelware tropes and traps – casual convertees may not be so lucky, however. And that market continues to expand apace, showing no signs of waning, having already propelled Apple to the position of most valuable tech company in the world.

This huge success is due in no small part to desirability of Apple branded products, which place far less feet wrong than their third party applications do (indeed, you could only prise I Am The Manta’s 3GS from his cold, dead hands). The upshot of such popularity is a captive audience, resigned to autocratic governance, who, having made their hardware decision, are locked into using one service (witness too, iTunes apparent disdain for its users).

Whilst the App Store is partitioned from the rest of the retail sector, Apple would do well to consider the events of ’83 and take seriously the possibility of their own microcosmic crash. The rapid ascension of Android to the position of genuine competitor, along with Apple’s insistence on first party dev tools and refusal to embrace flash, could well see jaded users and developers alike migrate to other pastures. Market dominance, no matter how assured, is never a guarantee of continued good fortune (even Sony managed to fall from grace five years ago), and despite the iPhone’s genuine contribution to the gaming landscape with titles such as Rolando, Drop7 and Flight Control, the deluge of substandard alternatives devalue Apple's achievements.

In the wake of the iPhone 4's announcement, and the iPad's building momentum, there is still a sense that Jobs rates games somewhere between porn and flash (you can decide for yourself which of these resides lower on this barometer) - indeed, Game Center wasn't even mentioned during the WWDC keynote yesterday. Despite the famed stability of their products, Apple may well be heading for turbulent times in the gaming sector if they don't display greater respect for the consumers so enamoured of their potential.