My predictions on world wide console unit sales numbers for the year ending 2012
I am not God and do not profess to have some all knowing, future seeing brain. This is just a fun topic and my opinion based on my very meager knowledge of the way the gaming world works. So without further delay...
I believe Nintendo's Wii will do a lot better than the Game Cube did. The console, while disappointing to me, has a good strategy and very good potential for growth through longevity. The Wii is helping to bring in new gamers to the industry thus creating an add on market for it's self and the industry as a whole. I think it just might sell between 30 - 40 Million units and perhaps just a little more.. perhaps. Now with all this success will Nintendo now bring out a significantly more powerful Wii 2 for the it's loyal fan base that would be on par with it's competitors for the next gen era? I have a sticky feeling like - hell no! It will most likely follow the tradition of the Game Cube and Wii - a shame really.
Sony's PlayStation 3 and it's fan base are just too strong and unless something catastrophic happens in the industry, it will remain dominate for this gen. It has the most potential for immense growth through longevity. However, it seems that the PlayStation 3 has been built more sturdy than it's predecessors so you might find a little less people replacing their initial systems for newer upgrades. That being said I think the PlayStation 3 may very well sell between 90 - 100 Million units. The PlayStation 4? Man, I can't even begin to phantom a thought for it's potential.
Microsoft's Xbox360 is a little hard for me to make a decent guess at. This is mainly because I've truly seen what the power of hype and slander can do. Advertising, good or bad, can be a very powerful thing and Microsoft has shown it posses this power and uses it more and better than others in this industry. In factoring in so many intangibles with the Xbox360 I've come to my conclusions that despite it all that, the Xbox360 may well be the second runner up for the end of this gen's battle selling more than it's predecessor but not by a significant much at roughly between 25 - 32 Million units sold. An Xbox 3? Man this one could be very tricky for Microsoft but I hope they find a way to continue to compete in the industry but I have a gut feeling...
I'd be very interested in seeing how close my initial predictions come and look forward to all the trials and jubilations of the industry for as long as I have interest.
Thank you for reading my blog.
[ORIGINALLY BLOGED ON DEC. 24 '06 ON GS]
thank you, i also have foreseen wiis untimely end, it looks to be high in numbers now, but i said that 2 years from launch it will fade away
I think the Wii might do slightly better than your predicted 30-40 million. That number will be exceeded by next year or the year after. If you talk about sales tapering off, perhaps 60-70 mill is probably a more sensible choice. As for the PS3 dominating. I think Sony will hit 70-80 million at the end of the console race, just ekeing out Nintendo under your prediction. By my prediction, it will come out 2nd in the race at around 60-70 million with Wii hitting 80-90 million and MS hitting 30 mil.
Btw, why is your name Chubear?