"so lets say Kinect will sell... then wut?"

well, dude, then developers will leverage the installed base to develop more fun titles which will attract more gamers which will sell more units, which will attract more developers.. etc etc.

The 360 is not the wii.
Hardcore games are certainly possible on the 360.
It just needs developers to do it, and the first step to getting developers on board with hardcore kinect titles is to sell lots of kinect install base
Lots and lots.
After that, developers will line up for a piece of the pie.

@wat634: totally agree with your first statement.
In the end, having fun is what really matters to ALL gamers.
The problem is, the idea of fun has become confused thanks to the abundance of fragile fanboy egos on n4g.

Sony should never have made Move. Instantly, the first thing you think of is "Wiimote ripoff." First impressions count. It doesn't matter that it's not quite a wiimote ripoff, the concept is poor from a marketing point of view.

Kinect may be an EyeToy ripoff, but it's not the first thing that comes to mind. "Controller-free gaming" is what first comes to mind. "Wow that sounds cool" is what first comes to mind. Doesn't matter that it's the usual un-fun casual crap that we've seen for years.

Ultimately though, both will fail, for a simple reason. They are taking a slice out of a small market. The Wii has the entire population of the globe with a TV as its market. Kinect and Move have the market of those who own a 360 or PS3 - this is a lot, lot smaller. To be successful as a competitor to the Wii it needs to be a stand-alone device. Peripherals only ever have a small number of 3rd party titles and a handful of proprietary games. Unless they are made standard, support drops off quickly. If they are made standard, you alienate 90% of your userbase which may be OK with a new, cheap controller but it's not OK with an expensive camera peripheral.