Reality Check: Why the Wii Motion Plus shouldn't - but will - win the "Motion Wars"

So, now that the introduction to E3 2009 is over, all three of the big players are now on the field with their own motion-based gaming technology. Each of them has a slightly different flavor - Nintendo improves on what it already has, Microsoft takes it to a potentially whole new level, and Sony falls comfortably in between. Obviously there's been a decent amount of discussion regarding which of these new technologies is "best", but I think there's something most people aren't considering.

Why the Wii Motion Plus shouldn't win the Motion Wars

The answer to this one is pretty simple. Nintendo's Wii Motion Plus technology appears to be inferior to what both Sony and Microsoft are offering. It definitely improves upon what the Wii initially gave us, but, from their initial demos and post-demo analysis, both Sony and Microsoft appear to have the edge here.

In a perfect world, the "best" technology would win, and help give gaming that extra nudge forward. Unfortunately, the rules of economics deem this highly unlikely to happen. Why? Well...

Why the Wii Motion Plus will win the Motion Wars

The simple answer is, well, simplicity. Take a moment in stick yourself in the shoes of a gaming company. Are you more likely to make a game that utilizies:

1. Unproven technology with a subtantally smaller userbase, at least at first.
2. A small add-on to proven technology that you can bundle with your game for those who may not already have one.

This isn't, by any stretch of the imagination, a new question for the gaming world. Post-launch console add-ons are almost always doomed to failure. Why? Because the potential number of customers is, by definition, significantly smaller than the number of people who own the console itself. Why, as a developer, would you make a game that relies on Project Natal technology, when you could simply make a standard game, for cheaper, and have a much larger potential userbase?

Nintendo has the clear advantage here. Their accessory is relatively cheap, and can easily be included with your game for a small price bump. Even better, it will be bundled with other popular games, thus guaranteeing that even more people are likely to have one.

What we are most likely to see on the Sony and Microsoft side are games that have an OPTION to use motion-control, but can also be played with your standard controller, which means the potential for the technology - especially in the case of the Natal - will still be very limited. Unfortunately, without games exclusive to the motion-control accessory, there is that much less of a reason to justify the purchase. Some people will take the plunge, sure. But the casual market Sony and Microsoft are aiming for? That becomes much less likely. It's a classic "chicken vs. egg" problem - most people are unlikely to buy the accessory unless there are exclusive games that take full advantage of it, and at the same time, companies are unlikely to make games that rely exclusively on the technology, unless there is already a subtantial guaranteed user-base.

For this reason, I think it's clear the Wii Motion Plus will dominate over its new technologically superior competitors. Sony's hybrid technology is likely to land somewhere in the middle, since it's more likely to be incorporated into the type of games that could also use the standard controller. As for Natal? Well, it easily has the loftiest potential, which also gives it the greatest heights to fall from.

Assuming the motion trend continues, I think all of the players in the next round of the console wars will have much more even footing, and when that happens, we might see some true magic happen from the more talented developers. Admittedly, I do hope that companies prove me - and history - wrong, and that we will see both the Natal and Sony Motion reach their full potential during this generation, delivering some incredible, never-before-seen experiences.

I just don't think it's an economic reality in this particular console war.