never4get

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No Future for Japanese AAA based on PS4 Sales in Japan, PS4 needs to go Mobile

There won't be any AAA Japanese PS4 Exclusive games, this generation. That's Bad, and I hope I'm totally wrong about this. Did I say there won't be any AAA Japanese PS4 Exclusive games in the future. Yes I did.

1 year old PS2, SONY sold 3 million PS2 Console
1 year old PS4, SONY sold 1 million Console.
http://www.geek.com/games/p...
http://www.dualshockers.com...

Imagine The Year 2019, PS4 is 5 years old. FINAL FANTASY VII remake still in development and FINAL FANTASY XV, KINGDOM HEARTS 3 is the last AAA Japanese game. How sad is that?

Japanese develoer goes full Mobile, PS4 needs to go Mobile.
http://www.dualshockers.com...

Nvidia Tegra X1 already capable of 1 TERAFLOP floating point performance, 2 of that chip capable of ~2 TERAFLOP. Mobile PS4 is Possible. I called PS4Portable, a tribute to Playstation Portable, PSP.

THE CPU, Central Processor

PS4Portable should choose cpu that is similar to PSVITA as seen at TGS 2015 Most Japanese Developer priorities game development for PS VITA. PSVITA equipped cpu quite different than the cpu found in PS4. PSVITA equipped with ARM A15 cpu and PS4 equipped with X86 Jaguar CPU. ARM A15 cpu can also be found on Nvidia Shield tablet. How good is PSVITA's ARM A15 cpu?

Based on benchmark found on www.primatelabs.com/geekbench/
browser.primatelabs.com/geekb ench3/2640210
browser.primatelabs.com/geekb ench3/3353505
Using Athlon 5130 we can estimate and see the similarity in performance between cpu in PS4 and SONY Xperia Z3.

4 cores of SONY PS4 scores ~ 3000
4 cores of Nvidia Shield tablet ~ 3000
We can see how close the performance between ARM A15 and AMD Jaguar.

Proven by how many Japanese Games made exclusively for both PSVITA and PS4 shown at TGS 2015. We can judge that making games playable on both PS4's Jaguar cpu and PSVITA's ARM A15 is fairly easy and most Japanese Developer looks like that they have taken ARM based cpu mobiles as the lead platform and we've seen little from them fully utilize PS4's Jaguar CPU.

With the growth, flourishment of middle-wares and game engines doing all the to-the-metal optimization, developer have less need to program cpu specific functions.

THE GPU, Graphics Processor

NVIDIA TEGRA X1 can produce peak performance of 1 TFLOPS, while PS4 can produce peak performance of 1.84 TFLOPS. 2 NVIDIA TEGRA X1 could emulate PS4 performance. With the release Tegra X1 equpped Nvidia Shield TV, PS4Portable could make today literally.

Questions regarding GPU architecture and GPU computing, Physics calculation difference between NVIDIA and AMD is not an issue, since to date, None of many Japanese game developers have released AAA exclusive games for the PS4. None. Thus GPU difference between PS4 and PS4 portable is not problem for Japanese developer who's going to develop AAA games.

AMD MOBILE CONSOLE EXAMPLE

Could AMD produce mobile cpu on par to Dual Tegra X1? Maybe they could. http://www.escapistmagazine...
AMD G-Series SoC "Steppe Eagle" with Jaguar-based CPU and GCN-based Radeon graphics, 4 GB RAM memory,HDMI video output connection. Shrinking PS4 CPU, GPU to 14nm, 20nm could help make existing PS4 games playable on PS4Portable. But this could take years. While NVIDIA TEGRA X1 is available today

PS4, PS4Portable GAME CROSS-PLATFORM COMPATIBILITY.

Since Most Japanese prefer mobile gaming, PS4 should simply emulate PS4Portable, since most Most Japanese PS4 games that also available on PSVITA, runs on PS4 with PSVITA emulator. Emulating PS4 games on PS4Portable could be difficult, but it doesn't matter since there's no Japanese AAA Exclusive for the PS4 on sale right now.

THE PRICE PS4Portable

NVIDIA Shield TV equipped with Tegra X1 cost $199, http://www.amazon.com/gp/pr... PS4Portable with 2 TEGRA X1 could produce 2 TFLOPS performance, for only $398.

Conclusion, with disappointing sales number of PS4 compare to PS2, Japanese developer heavily focus on mobile gaming and there's still no Japanese AAA exclusive for PS4, bringing home-console PS4 performance to mobile could truly re-VITA-lize Japanese AAA development future, for only $398.

Plus PS4Portable can also make calls.

3781d ago Replies(3)
Godmars2903781d ago

Where DVD movie playback had as much, if not more, to do with the PS2's overall success, not just Japan, VR looks like it might engage the general public. Especially in Japan. Through the PS4.

Its also not going AAA gaming, but mid-level titles that aren't going to push hardware.

ABizzel13781d ago

VR is going to be a hard sell at $299.

It needs to be $199 if it's going to have mass appeal. Tons of games getting patched to support VR so gamers already have libraries for VR Day 1 with the games they already own. Plenty of amazing VR experiences to convert the naysayers, such as No Man's Sky, and MANY MANY more of that quality that makes you just want it (FPS, Racers, FP Adventure, Puzzle (specifically Portal 3 VR), and much more). Finally Sony has to get this in GameStops, Malls, Stores, and Conventions around the world so everyone can get their hands on it and test it out.

If all that happens I see it selling around 30m - 50m units, at $199.

If that price is $299, it's topping out at 20m - 30m units.

If it's $349 - $399 it's going to struggle.

Godmars2903781d ago (Edited 3781d ago )

Agree that $199 is the sweet spot, but if PS VR can deliver more than what I've seen so far of so called theater experiences I've seen of VR, can make you feel like in front of a 60" plus HDTV or full on movie screen instead of some cheap "screen-saver" room, consistently for TV shows and movies, that's going to sell it better than any game. Even at $349, provided they blitz Best Buys with demos.

Though as is, if first person is going to be an option in titles like Minedraft, FF14 and GTA5 through the PS4, that's going to be major as well.

Also to note from your above comment, the PS4 is getting a price cut in Japan. Forgot when.

ABizzel13781d ago

VR Minecraft would fly off shelves. But would MS allow it now, when they're doing AR Minecraft.

Also PS4 price drop October.

donthate3778d ago (Edited 3778d ago )

biz:

MineCraft has been confirmed for Oculus Rift sold on MS app store and Oculus app store.

also, I think a PS4 price drop will happen next year after the holiday rush. I think Sony wants to see how they are doing this Christmas before handing out free money.

FlexLuger3778d ago

"If all that happens I see it selling around 30m - 50m units, at $199.

If that price is $299, it's topping out at 20m - 30m units."

Honestly I think those numbers are quite optimistic. We will see though.

+ Show (1) more replyLast reply 3778d ago
garrettbobbyferguson3779d ago

VR is never going to engage the public. The bulky headset along with that price point will just never catch on. Not to mention that it's going to be similar to how the Power Glove or Virtual Boy is/was. It will have to have dedicated games designed for it. The advantage PC has is that games can be reworked to run for Oculus. It's not the best but it can happen. Games like Killzone will never run on the Playstation VR.

Godmars2903778d ago

Something that's essentially plug and play is going to be less appealing to the general consumer than something else that would involve modifications and upgrades? Again, general consumer. You're talking about a sub-group within the larger.

All the PS4 needs is a fist person patch for GTA5.

garrettbobbyferguson3778d ago (Edited 3778d ago )

@godmars

How exactly is the PS4 going to render two instances of GTAV at the resolution/FPS required for a non-nauseating VR experience?

donthate3778d ago

The thing with VR though is that it isn't some kind of "break out" success.

It is going to be a slow adoption and there might be another VR generation (that fixes issues), dropped prices and quality content before it really picks up, if it does or if it will fizzle out like 3D TVs.

One of the biggest complaint with 3D TVs were the uncomfortable glasses and overall experience. With VR you now have a relatively heavy thing strapped to your head that might produce nausea to boot!

I don't know how many people can enjoy 3D for a long period of time, let alone VR.

So I don't think it will save PS4 in Japan either.

Japan wants mobile gaming, and I think they are content with that. However, I think the console industry is expanding so that is good overall, and might just get us content from other regions in Asia.

Godmars2903778d ago

That's why I think its media aspect is going to be more of a factor than gaming, if a large screen HDTV experience can be reproduced. The difference of owning or only having the room for a 20" or 40" set, or gaining access to a 70"+ one in VR. With only one person being able to watch it being a major set back.

And the PS4 doesn't need saving in Japan. Its just not doing the PS2's numbers. Selling at 3DS numbers.

@garrettbobbyferguson:
For how little I follow PS VR, think the power module it needs also carries some of the rendering workload. If it can it can, if not it wont. Like I said media is going to be more of factor.

ABizzel13781d ago

I think PS4 will do just fine in JP, it's not going to break any sales records at all over there, but it has a chance of matching PS3 / Wii if they pick up the slack. Holiday 2016 will be the defining year for PS4 in JP, because price will be $299 - $349 (already $349 next month), and FF15, RE 7, Kindom Hearts, Star Ocean, Dragon Quest, and more AAA JP games should be on the console or at the very least announced by then.

If sales jump then it's on track for PS3 / Wii success (10m - 13m). If it doesn't then it's looking more like 8m in sales. That being said I think we'll see a big influx of JP games on PS4, because there are plenty being announced consistently and TGS polls surveyed plenty of developers and a large portion wanted to start developing on PS4, significantly more than those survey's tallied for PS3, so that's good news, and a great starting point.

There is some misinformation regarding your blog though:

GPU
"Nvidia Tegra X1 already capable of 1 TERAFLOP floating point performance, 2 of that chip capable of ~2 TERAFLOP. Mobile PS4 is Possible. I called PS4Portable, a tribute to Playstation Portable, PSP."

The first part isn't your fault, it's just one of NVIDIA's many BS charts they post. The X1 is capable of 1 TFLOP....but it's at FP16 not FP32. At this point I think ALL games and TFLOPS floating point calculations are based on FP32 (single precision) / FP64 (double precision). The Tegra X1 FP32 is only 512 GFLOPS at 1GHz when it comes to single precision. That NVIDIA BS. Also I seriously doubt the Tegra X1 chips can be put into SLI configurations considering the 750 Ti can't, so as far as I know it's stuck at 512 GFLOPS which is still superior to PS360Wii U, and exactly why I recommend the Shield TV that uses it as a buy for those looking into it.

ABizzel13781d ago

"CPU"

Mobile CPU's and desktop CPU's can't really be compared apples to apples at all. That being said the PS4's CPU (as a Quad-Core) is better than the ARM 15, and it also a tad better than ARM Quad-Core Cortex A57, yeah mobile CPUs are pretty close to the PS4 CPU. But what sets it apart is that fact that the PS4's CPU is a true 8-Core CPU, and while chips like Snapdragon 810 (8-cores as well) only have 4-cores that function almost on par with 4 of the PS4's CPU cores, meanwhile the other 4 in the 810 are significantly weaker than the remaining 4 cores in the PS4 (literally 1/3). It's a bit sad the PS4 and XBO CPUs can ever be compared to mobile CPUs, but they are still better, and probably will be for the next several years (mobile should pass it with it's stronger 4-cores, but the weaker 4-cores will keep it behind overall).

Cost
The Shield TV console is selling for $199, only because it's NVIDIA proprietary hardware, otherwise it would be $249 - $299 for any other company trying to use the same tech (although it has been several months now).

I came up with my own calcs, as well for potential mobile / portable hardware for PS, and at this point they need to give up completely on handheld, and just make a PSTablet.

A Tablet can get away with a higher price say $299, and it can house much better hardware than a handheld due to size, a much bigger / better screen for gaming, and a bigger battery for battery life.

At $299 with a potential 2017 launch they can pretty much use.....something comparable to Snapdragon 810 (hence why I said it earlier), with a focus on GPU cores & performance, 3GB of RAM, and 1GB of VRAM and it would be somewhere around Wii U / Shield console performance.

It would also be very wise to tie it in with PS4, but also build functionality into the PS5 to completely support the PSTab just as well as Wii U with it's Gamepad.

Overall good blog, and good job researching all this. Maybe we should both stop blogging on n4g and go after Patcher's position as an analyst. XD

FlexLuger3778d ago

PSNow on mobile devices other than the PSV. That might be the answer in japan for sony, I reckon. I think PS5 will do fine everywhere else though. For Japan the console is dead..or a niche product at best...for them. We will still buy our games on consoles fortunately.

rainslacker3778d ago

I'm pretty sure Sony will produce some PS4 AAA exclusives from their Japan Studios this gen. So think the premise of your blog is already off.

Square seems to be pretty cozy with Sony right now, so chances are they'll make a few....although it'll depend on how you define exclusive since they'll possibly come to PC.

Then there's the 2nd parties...such as Bloodborne or things from Quantic Dream.

In any case, does it matter if it's exclusive?

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