Understanding The ESA Statistics

This is a blog about statistics. Hey! Hey! Hey! Don’t you dare close that tab. I’ll try to make this as painless as possible. I promise. I want to talk about the ESA and the statistics that they provide. I want to try to explain why it exists, who creates it, why they create it, why it’s largely nonsense and why we should NOT complain about it being nonsense.

There are two kinds of statistics, the kind you look up,and the kind you make up. ~ Rex Stout

First things first, the ESA are a collection of gaming companies and companies with gaming interests. Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo are all members. Even EA is a member, so obviously they don’t have enough class to keep out the riff-raff. I just googled “riff-raff” to make sure I spelt it right and instead came up with pictures of a rapper and so I watched one of his videos. Excuse me while I try to resuscitate my belief in humanity.

Well, I tried. Anyway, my point is that any data generated by this group has a large serving of bias from the get-go. They are going to create statistics that serve their interests and says what they want it to say. This is no scientific study. There is no institutional oversight, there is no body assessing these “facts”. It’s just a document with some bar graphs and charts put up on the internet with no real explanation or raw data. No scientific oversight. Given the amount of false information that makes it out to publication even with scientific oversight, one should immediately be suspicious of these “facts”. If you don’t believe me, read about the erroneous claims made by Andrew Wakefield about vaccines and autism, which made its way into the Lancet, considered to be one of the most prestigious medical publications around. It has and will continue to have, a significant negative health impact as long as people still believe it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wik...

So, what exactly do these companies want the statistics to say? This is a political body. According to a Bloomberg report, The Entertainment Software Association spent around $1.1 million in the first quarter of 2011 on lobbying efforts in Washington D.C . They are a wealthy political body. These “statistics” are aimed largely at politicians and policy makers, and they want the stats to say very specific things. Firstly, they want to say that adults play games. Adults who vote and pay taxes. Secondly, they want it to say that large groups of women play games, to show that entire family units are firmly in support of gaming. In politics, families are super important. They want it to say that gaming is big business, generating large amount of income and employing large groups of people. They want it to say that gaming is taking over from Hollywood and TV as leading entertainment mediums. They want it to say that gaming is on a path to rule the Earth and part of Mars and that everyone is on board. Some of these statements are actually true, but many of them are not. In all, these stats are there to give gaming a voice in the political landscape, and that is a very important thing.

“99 percent of all statistics only tell 49 percent of the story.” ― Ron DeLegge II, Gents with No Cents

The ESA statistics provide no raw data to examine. One of the things that they do say (in very fine print) is that they went about “…gathering data from more than 2,200 nationally representative households. Heads of households, and the most frequent gamers within each household, were surveyed about their game play habits and attitudes.” Let me explain why, at this very first statement, the entire process can be considered nonsense. They never explain how these families were selected. If you send out a survey about gaming to 10,000 families, only a few of them will respond. The ones that are likely to respond are those that have members that play games. The ones that do not play videogames will ignore the survey and will not respond. Nobody in their right mind will fill out a survey about a topic that does not interest them. This is known in statistics as “selection bias”. Without explaining how they selected these families, there is no way that we can know if this data truly represents the general public. They could simply be selecting gamer families like my own.

I’ll give one more example. The most recent data gives the average gamer as aged 31 years. They also say that women make up half of the gaming public and that the majority of gamers are older. Okay, if you send a written survey out to a family, the older members are likely to see the benefits of responding. They will appreciate the importance and are more likely to take the time to fill it out. No teenager I know gives a fart about replying to some survey…..this further compounds the selection bias that I mentioned earlier. If you want teens to respond to a survey you would probably have embed it somehow in that Anaconda video. Pause for contemplation and appreciation. Second, how did they define “gamer”. Does playing a game on my mobile once a month make me a “gamer”? Is a gamer like this, equivalent to someone who plays games every day in this survey? If the answer is yes, then these stats are largely useless to the gaming industry. I’m not going to make a website or a marketing plan aimed at a person who plays games once a month. Let me put it another way. If i spend $300 a month on games, am i in the same category as someone who plays 1 free to play game a month on their phone? My logic says no. My point is not that mobile users are worthless, my point is that the information lacks the depth required to make it useful to the gaming industry. These stats exist for the purpose of manipulating politicians. I wonder if there’s a game like that?

I can prove anything by statistics - except the truth. ~ George Canning

I could go on but I don’t think I really have to. My point is this – these stats have to be considered as made up nonsense. They provide no real data or information as to their methodology. Colored charts on paper are pretty, but not necessarily factual. These guys need to provide a lot more data that is independently verified, for it to be taken seriously. So, should we complain? Should we protest? Should we riot? Put the pitchforks down people, because the only thing we should do is keep our mouths shut. These are lies but when someone lies in your favor you should just nod knowingly and keep quiet.

“If your experiment needs a statistician, you need a better experiment.” ― Ernest Rutherford

Gaming needs a voice in the political landscape and lies are part of the process. The NRA can spout whatever rubbish they want about videogames and violence, but as long as we appear to out-perform and out-spend them, things should be okay. Bear in mind though that you do still have to be vigilant. Corporations are people - rich people who are above the law. The ESA once supported the SOPA and PIPA bills,in fact they spent $200,000 doing so, so don’t take it for granted that they have your best interests at heart. Keep those pitchforks sharp and be mindful of this group and what they set about doing “in the name of gamers”. Don’t drink their cool-aid. Kindly refuse and hold out for some Vodka instead.

Why did I bother to write this then? It’s not just to warn you about the ESA. It’s also because I’m tired of seeing gamers argue over this piece of fiction and use it as some sort of gospel to win arguments. If you want to argue over fiction stick to things like – “Who would win in a fight between Batman and Superman?” Or you could argue about religion like a normal person. Maybe women really do make up 50% of the gaming public. the average gamer could really be 31 years old. It all depends on how you define "gamer". Based on your definition, you can get anything from 0-100%. What i would be more interested in finding out is which group spends more money or more time gaming.Does advertising revenue on mobile exceed revenue from traditional retail models? Statistics can say whatever the person creating them wants them to say and hide whatever they want to hide. Or as someone put it more eloquently - "Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital". Just see these things for what they are but pretend that its the truth while it suits your interests.

Also, Batman wins. Batman always wins.