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Analysts back Microsoft's 3m Kinect sales claim

Eurogamer writes: "Microsoft reckons upcoming motion-sensing add-on Kinect will sell over three million units this Christmas, destroy iPad sales and perhaps even be the biggest platform launch of all time.

But will it? Eurogamer chatted to three top analysts to get their verdict on Microsoft's bold and brash Kinect sales claim - and they all agreed."

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eurogamer.net
Hellsvacancy5726d ago ShowReplies(4)
PimpHandHappy5726d ago (Edited 5726d ago )

"I believe Microsoft is just simply communicating to us all that the Kinect will not be another Bing, or Zune, or worse, Kin.

"I'm not as optimistic as you that this is a conservative figure. The standalone units mean that existing 360 owners are willing to pay $150 for something that they aren't convinced they need.

Colin Sebastian, from Lazard Capital Markets, also backed Microsoft.
"This sounds like a reasonable expectation for sell-through, and is consistent with our estimates," he said.

Shadow Flare5726d ago

I want to know what those 3 million people will be playing

Omega45726d ago

I think MS actually expects to sell more than 3ml. Like the article said its rare for a company to state estimates with actual figures before the product releases. They have seen the preorders so they must be pretty confident and I'm sure they are going to want to say "Kinect is selling well above expectations".

btk5725d ago

They are bluffing themselves.
History is full of hyped products that just fell down in the mud regardless of the analyst projections.

MS can expect what they want. There is a few facts to consider:

1. Price.
$150 is a lot of moolah to part with. The games themselves is 30% more than what other platforms ask for casual games. Maybe the reasoning is that mini games sell well on Wii, so if they make it for XB360 it will sell like hotcakes - so they can charge more. Answer is NO. Casuals pay less for games. Calling it a casual game and asking more is not going to shift units.

2. Functionality
Now even the fanboys will think twice if the product does not produce what is promised. So far MS has been hyping future potential and showing Fitness games, Dancing games - and epic flailing in some games. When all is said an done - it does no more than the EyeToy.

Saying it is a new "Platform" does not make it a new platform
Saying that it will do x,y,z in future - well - gamers will wait until it does before buying.

outrageous5725d ago (Edited 5725d ago )

Well estimates have been brought down from the lofty 5 million M$ was talking about not to long ago. What M$ really wants is to sell bundles with Kinect to new customers and really smash the competition...if they had reduced their price to $99.99 like ALL the analysts had said, it would of been a phenom. There is alot of room to drop, price wise in the new year and they really are hoping to cash in on a new craze...the key word being " Hoping "...I think the $299 bundle could really take off if Kinect shows itself to be a winner in the eyes of the casual gaming market.

Cyrus3655726d ago

Got hand to microsoft, who'd have thought they can take PS Eye with some improvements, market it for $150, and still get a demand...

niceguywii605726d ago (Edited 5726d ago )

They will sell more than 3 million. Kinect will have Wii-like adoption. Come on controlling games with your body! every Soccer mom in the world will have their kidz begging for it and casual families and real gamers will love it for one reason or the other.

I'm talking about real gamers, you know the ones that play everything because gaming is their hobby and they play and own everything for that console or others.

AceofStaves5726d ago

Unless the software warrants the purchase, and the hardware actually works as promised, there could be a significant number of returns.

Microsoft has to ensure the product will meet quality standards, or word-of-mouth could be the true Kinect-killer.

btk5725d ago

I think the word-of-mouth killer is what is causing the Greenberg statement and the shut-up articles. I think they are seeing it in the pre-orders. Remember - retailers already said they think Move will sell more than Kinect. By making statements like expecting 3M sales is an attempt to hype to create sales.

rwarner1745726d ago

They will sell alot at first I don't doubt. But over time this thing will stall because the software most likely won't warrent the purchase.

5725d ago
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70°

Microsoft Gaming Revenue Drops 7% Year-on-Year, Content and Services Down 5%, Xbox Hardware Down 33%

Microsoft announced its financial results for Q3 of fiscal year 2026, including an update on its gaming Xbox business and more.

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simulationdaily.com
Jin_Sakai25d ago (Edited 25d ago )

Not looking good. Hopefully Asha Sharma is able to turn Phil’s disaster around.

dveio25d ago

To me it's still quite remarkable how they can cash-in 5.3bn in revenue in a single quarter, since their hardware is basically dead.

Jingsing25d ago

The stock mark is what makes Microsoft remarkable, They have convinced every institutional and retail investor to just keep piling money into them. Like many big tech giants they are just a big growing pyramid scheme. As long as people keep dropping money into ETF's that cover the market Microsoft will always be liquid. At the same time it is completely stifling innovation and competition. People need to start being more discreet in how they invest their money as it's killing the system.

Tanktopmaster9225d ago

Once they re-evaluate exclusive all will be fine….

S2Killinit25d ago

Riiiiight because people will just flock back to them for one or two games per year.

Jingsing25d ago

15+ years of bad performance is what they call irreparable in business. It is time for them to sell off the assets and get out of entertainment.

Tanktopmaster9225d ago

These declines are on the back of extra revenue received from releasing games like Forza horizon 5 on PlayStation. So I’m being sarcastic here when I said they should go back to exclusives. Killing off a revenue stream from Ps5 sales will only make things worse

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70°

Xbox boss: Memory crisis could impact next-gen hardware pricing

Xbox boss Asha Sharma has discussed how component shortages will impact the company's plans for Project Helix.

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gamedeveloper.com
Eonjay27d ago

When does this end? Its killing everyone. Consoles and PC. And for what? AI? The benefits of AI are completely outweighed by the negatives. And the government should have never allowed one company to buy up all the RAM.

Lexreborn227d ago

This kind of proves this is an after thought product, most products like this are in r&d 5 years before they start mass producing. So they typically have the cost of components and things worked out long before assembly starts.

This is an assumption still, but I wouldn’t be surprised if project helix is similar to Scalebound,perfect dark and sod3. They had an idea but no actual execution other than concept stage. Being impacted by the ram shortage likely would also put this device 3-4 years out.

I’m not even sure MS has that endurance with Xbox yet

Fishy Fingers27d ago (Edited 27d ago )

I mean.... what?

We're at a point that Samsung wont even provide their own phone department ram because they can sell it at higher prices to 3rd parties (AI). Its more profitable to sell the ram than make their own devices with it.

You think because R&D starts 5 years ago the 3rd party component manufacturers will honour that price? They'll sell it to whomever is paying the most today, not some gentlemens agreement they made years ago. AI farms will buy more volume at higher prices than any console manufacturer will. It'll be the same for Playstation.

Lexreborn226d ago

Contractual agreements are not the same as “gentlemen” agreements. If you think that they work with their distributors a month before production then their entire business model is trash. They work with companies like nvidia constantly for building the graphics cards they need. They work with companies that build motherboards years in advance. This is what proper business planning does.

They are not buying components on a whim like a consumer. So again, considering the ram isn’t a singular module and is integrated into the motherboard I highly doubt they wouldn’t have a final schematic that they are supposed to be building around.

If they are delaying production another 3 years then it’s obvious again this is an after though project and is just trying to be responsive to their bad execution they had the last 14 years.

It also isn’t far fetched to use their failure to produce first party titles the last 7 years including the highly anticipated games I mentioned all being cancelled. That they would continue to you know… lie

Sitdown27d ago

You don't really know how this works huh?

Profchaos27d ago (Edited 27d ago )

Helix is going to be stupidly expensive

Instead of leaning into smarter upscaling techniques they're brute forcing hardware that will cost them dearly and it remains to be seen if it's genuinely going to provide a meaningful differential

I know in the oc.doace people like to brag about not using frame gen or dlss to get to high on a game but for the majority of players they happily use those technologies without a second thought

That's going to be ps6 vs Helix

Eonjay27d ago

Yeah with FSR 5 they should be able to offer a much cheaper version of Helix.

Eonjay27d ago

While this does seem to be the case, I am encouraged by the statement from Microsoft about wanting to provide affordable options. If this means a Series S style Helix, at least there will be something affordable being offered.

XBManiac26d ago

Series S is what has killed Xbox Series so... Will they dare?

blacktiger27d ago

It's called systematic inflationary. Yes we get it Microsoft, keep raising in the name ofall kinds of stuffs

pwnmaster300027d ago

Honestly if there was thing I learned from this generation is that new consoles arnt day one anymore.
I can wait 1-3 years.

DarXyde27d ago

Another important lesson from this generation: while Nintendo showed us that prices don't necessarily need to ever drop, we've now learned that waiting 1-3 years does carry some risk that prices increase. This generation is just bizarre in all the wrong ways.

LucasRuinedChildhood27d ago (Edited 27d ago )

The factors are largely external. Covid and Russia-Ukraine war causing inflation led to the first price increase in 2022.

Then we get Trump's tariffs increasing hardware prices, AI boom causing a RAM crisis, war on Iran causing a worldwide fuel crisis which impacts the cost of everything.

Gaming doesn't exist in a vacuum. The last few years have been a shitshow and lot of it was definitely avoidable.

DarXyde26d ago

LucasRuinedChildhood,

For sure. No disagreement on the external factors doing a lot of this. Where I have to gently push back however is on two fronts:

1. The pandemic definitely caused some issues: asynchronous development was a big issue and really complicated timelines and affected game quality. At the same time, when it comes to price hikes, it's really difficult to know what was genuine necessity and what was taking consumers for a ride. The pandemic brought about "stag-flation" which was increasing prices and stagnant wages, which was a problem caused by supply chain constraints. There was also "Greed-flation", where companies that were slightly affected or had no issues took advantage of the situation and squeezed everyone citing supply chain issues when there were none.

2. It's definitely true that the tariffs, AI boom, and RAM crisis were all things enabled by tech broligarchs throwing money at this caricature of a world leader, one of them being Satya Nadella. I don't think Sony and Nintendo have contributed much to this problem if at all, but Microsoft's Nadella I feel was instrumental in causing every one of those issues. Microsoft as a company contributed to both candidates (though they gave Harris 4x as much if I recall), but Nadella was all in on letting AI run wild. He paid for unregulated AI, and got a war that's not a war (even though Trump called it that at least five times on television) that screwed up helium access. So for me, I feel that one of the players in the gaming industry is a key architect of these issues, and for that reason I struggle a bit to think of it as "external".

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50°

'The big things that we're thinking about'

In an exclusive interview with Game File, new(ish) Xbox boss Asha Sharma and Xbox chief content officer Matt Booty explain their vision for Microsoft’s gaming division

Read Full Story >>
gamefile.news
Agent7528d ago

A good start would be to release games to go with the console. My Xbox Series X has gathered dust virtually from launch. My advice would be to ditch a next console and release games on PC, PlayStation and Switch. Another idea would be a hybrid console based on Xbox Series X tech and go the same route as Nintendo. Another idea would be to pull out of gaming altogether. Plenty of options there.

Reaper22_26d ago

Why would they pull out? They have the momentum. Sony has been getting nothing but bad news lately.