MS dosent have to win for E3 to be good for gamers (people who play games).
If all of them have a great show its will be good for all gamers...no single companys performance will determine a great E3.
That's said this article need more substance.
Like MS can bring all 11 games...but you need to predict what sony bring as well. If Sony brings 15 blockbuster games to MS 11, will MS still "win"?
It's stupid to play winners simply because fanboys will say the console on their side won no matter what.
It's best to sit back and enjoy whatever happens...it's gamer holiday season. Leave the fanboy battles aside until afterwards.

First reasonable comment I've seen on this website in weeks

When articles of this quality exist, you know there's no much going on.

There's 4 games on this list that MS really have to show at this point so that we can see what's going on and how they play, because they've been announced for quite a while. Those games are Crackdown 3, Sea of Thieves, State of Decay 2 and Cuphead. They're not going to contribute to a win for just showing up though, and from a first-party perspective Sony has a lot more going on that more people are excited for.

I'm not sure how Phantom Dust 2 will add up to a win. If it's a CG trailer reveal like that last one that was supposed to be coming then don't count on it. There will be at least one niche Japanese game on Sony's E3 that will excite more people than a Phantom Dust sequel tease.

Sunset Overdrive 2 would be a cool surprise and show commitment to growing a new IP into something more, but unlikely that Insomniac are working on it at present, and a #SpiderManPS4 gameplay blowout, title reveal and release date would weigh in heavier.

Conker's Bad Fur Day 2 would be an awesome surprise, but unless we know which creative minds are making it then it won't exceed the best of what Sony or Nintendo will reveal and appeal to nostalgia in a greater way. They're not going to announce more than one additional Rare game at E3, especially with Sea of Thieves being a premier focus, so count Banjo out.

Forza 7 is a given as part of a yearly series. Maybe it would make a stronger impact if one of the games the highlights Scorpio, but remember we're talking about winning E3 on the strength of impactful and surprise game announcements.

They closed Lionhead among several other studios in 2016. Who is going to work on Fable?

Then there's that rumoured Tomb Raider sequel. It's multiplatform and even if there's timed-exclusivity involved gamers will already know the score. Plus, Sony is going to have its own big third-party exclusive announcements, and probably will be something as big if not bigger than Tomb Raider.

There isn't a lineup of games here that surpasses what Sony is going to have to show based on what they already have announced and what they are preparing to announce on their stage.

They will have a couple unannounced games or at least they should, I am not sure about surprises or not but maybe. Every year there are unannounced games so I wouldn't call that a surprise, unless its something like Shenmue3 or FF7 remake. Like Halo Forza whatever number and Gears 5 wouldn't surprise anyone.

the Xbone will be lucky to have another 11 exclusives before MS decidee to discontinue it

They showed 17 last year