"Despite the fact that Blu-ray movies are expected to hit to 12 million sales in Europe this year, they still account for just two per cent of video sales in countries like the UK.

Even by 2012 DVD will still have the edge - and that's according to the Blu-ray Disc Association's own over-enthusiastic predictions [PDF link]."

Done. No need to discuss about it anymore.

TWO PER CENT OF VIDEO SALES

Even by 2012 the DVD will still be on top. At that time the digital downloads and other formats have arrived.

Its was a good sales driver for the PS3 for those that are horny for the newest format but it seems it won't reach its maturity ever.

"becose by 2012 deegeetal downloodz will taik ovar omgwtfbbq!"

Hahaha stupid 12 year olds. Hey kiddies, nothing will change. Blu Ray will shiat on your face. Cant go around it. Owned.

mbooiga: Idiot. Thats irrelevant. It doesnt matter WHAT YOU think about your DVD player. The fact is Blu Ray is supported by every studio in the world now and its backed by the PS3. That alone makes it a success.

Having an install base of 65 million plus Blu Ray players around the world by 2012 and selling over 100 million copies a year means that no matter what happens Blu Ray is a success and will stay.

By then you can still keep that inferior DVD player if you want. Some people still have VHS for crying out loud but its not going to CHANGE ANYTHING about the reality that Blu Ray is here to stay.

And if you are stupid enough like those VHS dudes still clinging on ancient and inferior technology, than by all means do it.

Meanwhile I know I will be watching in the highest quality on the highest storage format.

Blu ray was a bust. The worst part was dragging the Playstation 3 down with it.

I just hope now Sony has some deep pockets and can afford all the losses they will get on the PS3. They're gonna have to cut the price of the PS3 again this year. Are you kidding me!!!

XBOX 360 starts at $199 and PS3 at $399. That's double the amount!! if Sony is crazy enough to not already have a price cut planned, they will go in emergency mode again after the next couple of NPD's.

That's some crazy sh*t. People paying double for a machine that plays the same games??

Who doesn't want $200 free dollars?? Raise your hand..

I'm happy with my DVD player thankyou very much

Digital downloads will never fully take off. Not everyone has super speedy internet to download HD movies and have a massive download quota and of course a hard drive that your constantly going to have to upgrade and besides I think most people prefer to have a hard copy instead of a digital copy where if deleted will make u download it again. Besides you can't take digital movies to mates or girlfriends place to watch them.

Blu Ray will be the leading format for movies. Hollywood doesnt make bone headed run of the mill decisions when it comes to supporting a medium. If there is competition between formats the weakerlings are swiftly weeded out. See; Laser Disc. See; HD DVD

To the victor(Blu Ray) goes the spoil so BR will be around for a loooooong time. Why? Because the power that is Hollywood said so. Rob and everyone else who is in denial about the longevity of Blu Ray are just talking out of their asses. Unless your an owner of a major movies studio you may as well STFU bc Hollywood has ALREADY spoken.

Don't see a point in upgrading to Blu-Ray for DVD's.

A couple more special features on the disc, and better visuals? All of that for just $300? Yeah...

Count me out...

If I praised a "supercomputer" that had teh cell!!!!1!! and teh blu-ray!!!!111!!!! and it could not even beat a dvd player, I would say it would be dead much sooner than 2012! LOL!

The thing about the switch from DVDs isn't quite like the switch from cassetes or cartridges to discs.

The truth is most people just don't understand HD, How to achieve it, etc. Which is why people don't switch to it as swiftly. Most people simply look at what they can see - portability, convenience, and price. Hence DVD easily wins over VHS.

The switch from VHS to DVD was swift not because of the video output quality, but because it was more convenient and portable. No need to rewind. The average person picks up on those simpler things more. How many gigs/better quality/etc - people just don't pick up on those things easily. First thing you see is the price and that a BluRay movie is sometimes up to twice the price of a DVD. So BluRay may replace DVD, but I don't think it would be taking over as swiftly.

BluRays/HDDVDs, to the people who don't understand technology(which in reality not many), aren't going to pick up on what the differences between to them are other than the fact that they are both just discs.

Another thing is most of the movies out there that are 1080 resolution are mid 90s - present day. Any earlier, you'd rather just get it on DVD. It would be a waste of money and time to get the BluRay when it's virtually the same quality.

I'm a Blu Ray guy myself. I got lots of movies on BluRay but honestly I don't see BluRay taking over any time soon if not at all.

I think there's a chance that by 2012 many more homes will have a decent speed broadband connection to enable digital downloading of films, but there WILL be homes without a fast broadband connection, and there's a chance not many homes' connections will be improved. I would love to download all my games and films, but the fact of the matter is that I don't have enough hard disk space. I've uninstalled most of the games on my steam account as it is. I've no guarantee that steam will always be around so I can play those games again. I'd need to re-download them again before playing anyway. A downloaded film collection for me would just be an undownloaded film collection, and unless I can stream the content I've already paid for once in HD, it's not that attractive to me. And even then I wouldn't be sure I could watch all my old films in the future (that's why I keep them).

So basically if you want HD content, blu-ray is the way to go. It seems it's still being hurt by the format war - if there was no HD-DVD (or no blu-ray for that matter), the winning format would have had market dominance far sooner. But as it is, it's late enough in the game for people to start talking about digital downloads and there are still some haters left from the HD-DVD camp (and spiteful xbox fanboys).

And even that's a lousy internet speed. Until 2 terabyte hard drives and 100 MBps connections become standard throughout the U.S. and Europe, digital downloads aren't going to replace Blu-ray anytime soon. What DD is good for right now is SD content, which is DVD's target area.

And until Digital Downloads somehow become easily portable between households, disc formats are going to stay dominant.

Sick of "Bluray quality is only a little bit better"
Watch it on a projector and you won't want to go back to DVD, also probably half the people who state this are watching Bluray on a 720P HD ready set and not Full HD panel.
Sick of "Digital download excuse"
I won't even go into that subject as everyone has stated many times the pitfalls of a service like that. Also if digital downloads are the future tell me why I still see as many CD's in the market as before the internet took off. If it was to kill off optical media than this wouldn't be the case but it isn't and CD's are a great defense to all these so called Tech Analysts theories of a digital download future.
There is no codec that rivals Bluray compression yet in a digital download service, ohh yeh I want Itunes HD content or whoever wants to claim to be a HD content provider through the net where it's only over 1gig in size , yeh that rivals a 50gb bluray please!!!.
There is probably room for both but I can tell you the fair percentage of the market will always be some form of media's favour.
Sure this crap is written by disgruntled HD DVD people!

Until internet speeds in the UK get up to the 100MB/s mark (which won't be any time in the near to mid future since the government won't be helping internet providers fund it's implementation) and ISP's remove their retarded limits on how much you can download per month (unless you're on their most expensive package in some cases) then the likes of digital distribution will not take off and I honestly can't see digital distribution being mainstream for a very long time due to storage limitations if nothing else.

And yeah, I like to take movies to my girls house to watch and her doing the same coming to mine.

Blu-Ray isn't mainstream either but I have a feeling that in the next few years it will be the medium that will become mainstream as both the players and the movies will get cheaper and people will start going more for HD TV sets. I bought my first HD TV like a month ago in one of the biggest UK electronics chains (Currys) and they didn't have a single CRT TV set, it was all HD LCD or Plasma sets, many of which had bundled blu-ray players for not too much extra.

When the movies and players come down a little in price more and more people will have an HD tv set, the capabilities and features of blu-ray will be better and people will take more notice as the library of BD movies grows and as advertising campaigns for them also grow.

There may well be another physical medium by 2012 but it'll be early in it's life-cycle and will probably be expensive just as all new technology is when it is first presented to the market and if people are happy with what they are already using then it'll find it hard to grow just as early Blu-Ray has compared to DVD.

Download speeds are no where near faster enough to download blu-ray sized games. How many DAYS do you think it would take to download a game about 50gigs? What about when developers start to make games even bigger than that(we know Hideo Kojima will).

Servers can't handle millions of people downloading a game at the same time. What will happen when Grand Theft Auto 5 or Metal Gear Solid 5 comes out and 6 million people try to download it at the same time?

Hard Drives aren't big enough. Ya we have Terabyte hard drives now, but how many blu-ray sized games can that hold? 20 games. Most people end up getting more than 20 games in a consoles' life time. And what about other media. Movies, Photos, Music. How about demos, betas.

What about moving content from one house to another. Easy and accessible with a disk, but not with a 50gb download.

So trust me! Blu-ray sizes will get larger (heard of the 500gb blu-ray disk), Blu-ray read speeds will get faster, and Blu-ray will not be dead by 2012!

...we will not see an end to physical distribution. The argument about broadband speed is too strong. Thats way no one saying that DD is going to take over ever mentions it. Much like other people, I like having something physical to set on a shelf.

that clown doesn't know what hes talking about.

it comes from a guy who probably bought 2 hddvd player(one is for his xbox 360 and the other one a stand alone player.) and 100 hddvd movies(which by the way are almost garbage or a thing of the past.). he is just sour graping. read my lips, you are a L-O-S-E-R! just accept it that bluray won the high def format wars.

2012 duh! by that time bluray would have taken over dvd's and will be the main format for consoles, high def players and pc's around the world and this guy will eat his words!

Sounds like a Sony hating bitter HD DVD/360 fantard to me.
Show me any average household that has internet that can download 50 gig in reasonable time...? Oh you can't? Well, stfu then.
Downloads will not replace physical media any time soon the way the internet infrastructure is at the moment on a world wide basis.

Oh yea also LightningPS3..please change your name to boring, obvious 360 fanboy. That would be more accurate. Grow some balls and try to be objective for once, instead of vague and fud like.

1.HD movie downloads
Download speeds are still too slow and they have yet to get True HD downloads with uncompressed sound.

2.BD-Live
It was a mistake not to include from the start but it is compulsory now but I rarely watch the extra features.

3. Samsung thinks Blu-ray is finished
People can be wrong just like saying HD-DVD was going to win. Good luck to Toshiba in getting a full HD format on a Flash card.

4. Sony thinks Blu-ray is finished
They are new model TV's he was talking about will be expensive and blu-ray would be far cheaper by the time the even hit the market.

5. DVD is good enough
For some yes but once you go HD and see the difference you will be more inclined to get blu-ray over DVD.

bravo......over........static. ......
roger.....this.....is.....bra vo......base......over
situation..is..hostile..surro unded...by...xbots....drop..the . ..big...one..over
roger.....killzone2..ordinanc e...en...route...over

smokes cigar while looking up at sky anticipating final victory.

lol@TheMART talking about BluRay ;-)

lolol, so funny

also one does not buy what one wants.. you buy what your given an option to buy

no one stopped buying cassettes and vhs tapes because they wanted to.. they stopped buying them because companies stopped releasing them...

this too will happen with DVD's, after a while companies will want your big budget blu ray dollars not your dvd pennies..

who else remembers when dvd's and vhs movies were released on the same day?

blah blah blah.. It,s been dead since HD-DVD came out. LOL

I agree with most of the posters here. Just because a new format is released doesn't mean that the current one is suddenly "dead". No-one can really say with a straight face that DVD is "dead", just because Blu-ray is gaining in popularity. Both formats are currently comfortably co-existing because the market allows it. Even if a new superior physical format was invented, its as though the author cannot imagine a world where there are two different formats existing at the same time.

In addition, many of these 'tech gurus' are so used to living with unlimited broadband networks that they forget that a large portion of the world do NOT have accessible broadband coverage, let alone plans that have no caps on bandwidth usage. When you live with something day in and out, you take it for granted. Large parts of Europe, including my country, operate with major caps on their broadband and digital downloads are simply not an option without incurring huge costs. Never mind the fact most HD movies are yet to be released in 1080P for this very reason. Now which ISP's will allow their profit margin to be slashed by removing caps to allow this to become the norm?

In addition, upgrading a country's telecommunications infrastructure to make this a common reality takes years and costs millions. To me this is a question of accessibility - while some countries have the broadband coverage and ISP access to warrant a complete shift to digital downloads, by eliminating physical formats you are annihilating a potential market of billions of users for the few tech types like the author who consider unlimited broadband access the norm.

With digital downloads becoming a dying fad due to monopolistic cable corporations putting a bandwidth cap on their subscribers, how does anyone expect anything other than disc-based media to catch on with consumers?

This guy is an idiot.

DD replacin BD in 4 yrs??? haha can't wait to see that.

NOBODY CARES ABOUT DIGITAL DOWNLOADS. JEEEEEEZ

Of course it will be. We'll ALL be dead by 2012, stupid n00bs.

Never heard of Armageddon? It's a jewish holiday!

Blu ray is a great piece of technology, and yeah of course dvd is going to stay in the lead for a long time but blu ray is here to stay as it gives te highest qualty you can get at the moment, and dont for a second think download services will take over, if someone is not going to buy a blu ray player what makes you think they are going to buy some sort of hard drive, then pay to download a compressed movie with quality a lot lower than blu ray, and even if they start downlod services for totaly uncompessed movies howmany people are going to want to sit around for hours waiting for a movie to download I know I wont. Hey feel lik watching te lord of the rings extended version, sure, ok lets wait 3 day as it downloads!! No thanks, watching a blu ray movie is a great experience and more and more people will be finding this out for themselves.

Is it possible to not believe in Blu-Ray without being labeled a fanboy?

My opinion is that Blu-Ray is very dependent of the PS3, and this generation of consoles. When the next gen of consoles are established I think Blu-Ray will be forgotten. I'm not implying that Blu-Ray is a bad format, it just seems to me that most of it's supporters are PS3 owners.

blue ray is supported by the few, its not overtaking the dvd aisles by any means.

its still not adopted like you want to bealeve, dvd is doing as well as ever,

we went from cd to dvd to a uncertain hd format from hddvd with better features to blueray- the winner of this next gen format, yet its not being adapted as quick as dvd was, that's not arguable that's fact, even with the ps3 being a blue ray player its not adapting.

That most likely could be because the industry is waiting for the next big thing, be it a new physical format or downloads or a mixture of both.

While many people shop online for their media, and therefore have access to many deals that retail outlet-only shoppers don't, there are still a lot of consumers who only go to brick and mortar stores to purchase technological investments. Many standalone stores have to monetarily satisfy their employees as well as the companies who provide the products, and therefore usually go by the suggested MSRP set forth by the industry (whatever the product is). People see that the prices are so high on brand new Blu-Ray films, especially when compared to their DVD counterparts, and are less likely to purchase the HD versions of movies despite them having superior features.

When the price of Blu-Ray discs can come down to a more reasonable level (i.e. no movie should cost more than 30 dollars [if that]), more uncertain shoppers will be willing to "Go Blu". This is especially necessary in these hard economic times where more people are beginning to scale back (or cut out completely) luxury purchases that aren't necessary to survive.

People downloading HD movies in the future will still probably be a small minority by then just as it is now. Internet here (U.S.A.) just won't be able to compare to other countries (like Japan) for a long time.

When I go to the video store down the road I usually rent out about six movies at a time.

If we're talking HD quality Blu-Ray movies that equates to about 240gb worth in total.

So I'd need a hdd with 240gb free space. I don't think that's asking too much since 1tb hhd's are already quite affordable and it's only 2008. As a matter of fact I actually have four of them running in this very computer at this very moment.

The 240gb would have to download in around fifteen minutes, which is how about how long it takes me to get to the video store, choose some movies and then get back home again.

I would need to have an internet plan that would allow me to download at that speed and have a big enough cap limit. At the moment I have to pay $110 per month for adsl2+ speed, with a cap limit of 100gb. Luckily the bill is split three ways because I definitely wouldn't be able to afford it by myself.

Pretty much every month we manage to run out of cap exactly one week before our quota is reset. This is without downloading a single 40gb movie. Judging from this I would guess (although I'm no expert) that the type of internet plan you would need to accommodate regular DD of both games and movies at a reasonable speed, won't be easily affordable.

The main reason I think that Blu-Ray is probably going to stick around for a while though, is that I believe that DD is just too advanced for the vast majority of the people to handle.

Before all it took was a single payment and you ended up with a new piece of hardware. If DD becomes the new standard you will need to have an internet connection. You will need to pay for it every month. FOREVER.

I think it is going to take a hell of a long time for the whole world to accept digital downloads as a universal format. I don't think it's even going to happen entirely. I think there will always be a need for a physical format and to me, it's looking like the next one is going to be Blu-Ray.

ok, i can understand that the U.S.'s slow adoption of true broadband is the cause for the slow progression of full hd movies and full retail game donwloads as a possibilty for the masses but the fact remanins that 10 to 15 years from now the larger portion of the majority will be using that as the means of buying or renting.

physical media is either on the way out or transforming into something more solid, less scratch able, sturdier, and something that is more feasible to use from one system to another.

Flash drives starting at 100gigs, who knows but thats where its heading.

As much as we might not like the idea of downalods, theres no doubting this is where its heading. I can see both a physical and download universe but i dont see blueray in that picture and thats not a knock at blueray but more of how things just roll.

Lets not act naive and think a new physical format isnt on its way, there's always something new coming and while they take years to arrive they always come. computers get faster, newer chips arrive, newer graphics cards arrive, newer consoles are made, memory cards get larger and new storage media always comes along.

TV is going digital, downloads are becoming a reality for we are basically doing it now in its infancy. It will only get better and faster and more adopted by all as neighborhood to neighborhood get connected with the latest thing(FIOS or whatever the newest thing is).

Realistically while you might not like a digital universe many dont mind, I truly wouldn't mind knowing that a true full retail game can be downloaded for my console without leaving my home, im all for it.

Tell me i can download evey movie i want in hd without leaving my house at the prices im accustomed to, im all for it.

change is coming. We went from basic channels to a cable box to the cable we have today, then satellite came along and now fios and other faster connections. It's obvious that this will somehow play a part with the next gen consoles and microsoft has shown they are willing to dabble or show what they got when it comes to digital downloads and some kind of online world.

They have successfully did online gaming, an online store, game downloads, dlc, movie and music downloads, and now netflix downloads all on a console successfully.

Just imagine what the next box will be capable of. And yes i cant wait to see what sony does this gen and next as well.

Once upon a time.. There was a boy named Blu-Ray. No one really liked blu ray. Blu Ray became a hobo on the east side of Wilshire and Belmont drinking kool aid singing the threescompany theme.

For this reason alone Blu Ray will prosper.

You even get blu-ray fanboys. It's all well and good self-justifying your investment, but I'm afraid the article is right. Ignore your prejudices and it's plain to see.

I think by reading the article your IQ will drop 10 points.

- The format is out for two years
-- predictions from these analysts said it was dead on arival, was going to be dead due to HD-DVD, that HD-DVD was better quality, and all kinds of subjective waffle.
-- now they have stretched it from dead in one year to dead in 6 years.

DVD will be "good enough"? Wow.
- Macs and PC's are now coming out with BR drives. BR sales rocketed in the last year. HD TV's is only now becoming mainstream - so the market is not even fully ripe for BR yet - let alone left it behind.

BR is the next DVD standard. CD's are still very much alive for Audio. DVD's still alive for mainstream video. BR is the standard for the next 10 years at least. Which is quite a good run in the market in any case.

Here's a couple of links to a recent Blu-Ray release on play.com which is a pretty good online store for music, dvd's etc.

The recent release is Transformers on Blu-Ray.

The 2 Disc DVD version comes in (a year later) at £9.99
http://www.play.com/DVD/DVD...

Here's the just released Blu-Ray option, it comes in at £15.99 which isn't a great deal more for an HD format imo
http://www.play.com/DVD/Blu...

Shop around and some movies aren't greatly more expensive than their DVD counterpart. Obviously older movies will be much cheaper than a re-release on Blu-Ray and tbh I find the PS3 to be excellent at upscaling DVD's so I personally don't have much interest in replacing DVD movies I already own with Blu-Ray versions but upcoming and future releases are another thing entirely.

I guess my point is that if you shop around the price of the actual movies isn't THAT bad. The most expensive BD movie on that site right now is like £17.99 I think and delivery is free. The price will gradually come down so I think perhaps the main problem Blu-Ray has is the price of players right now but like I said in an earlier post in this topic, there are some high street stores including Blu-Ray players with new HD tv's - along with the price gradually coming down on players (as happens with all new tech over time) then the switch might start to pick up pace.

Either way consumers have a decent range of choice out there so buy what you like and be happy :)

Are this guy on crack or something?

Blu-ray wont be dead before 2020 or something.

Why, because you can sell your games again, the value of your investment.

I just found a 1TB Sata hard drive for the PC for £90, I see hard drives are getting much cheaper.

http://www.overclockers.co....

Then you got a 1.5TB hard drive for £138.

http://www.overclockers.co....

...I swear, if the PS3 was never created you wouldn't hear about the death of bluray...

But now the PS3 is sticking around, you see these doomsday articles roaming around.

PATHETIC.

but downloading does take time, and there will always be those times when downloading is not convenient, I like to have both options if I am honest, the only way downloading can take over completley will require that we be allowed to make actual backup's of the movies we download, and although a happy 360 owner I downloaded phyconauts but it broke, now when I try to download again I am told I have to pay, this is likely due to me buying a new 360 but it should be based on my gamertag, I tried to download matrix reveolution and got the same problem.

DLC is far from evolved, I doubt Bluray will become obslete anyitime soon.

and blueray is dying.

but people will be happy with blu ray once it gets mainstream, just like people are still buying DVDs today even though better technology has been out for a while.

This whole "blu-ray is gonna fail" or "-has limited future" is getting really boring.
Sony/Blu-Ray/PS3 haters have nothing better to do i guess now that their 360's getting toasted all the time and their beloved hd-dvd sunk.

and i though its already dead

...that all these "Blu-Ray will fail!" articles read like the were written by someone that was bitter that they backed the wrong horse(cough, HD-DVD, cough!) America has the worst internet service in the world and until that improves and these ISPs stop capping everyone's bandwidth, HD downloads ain't catchin' on! And as far as DVD Upscalers, my PS3 can do that too, but it still doesn't look as good as 300 on Blu-Ray!

sorry but people who say this are idiots. why would i say that, well 7 billion people in the world and there only 3 billion of us online. so more than half the world has not internet connect.

HD downloads will not be possible in the UK, 24mbps is are top speed but 17mbps of 24mbps only comes through, UK average speed is 2-3mbps, most of UK wires are copper wires, most over 60 years old, War time wires lol. we have fibre optic cable but only with virgin media customers. if UK when 100% fibre optic cable it would cost £4 billion. so DVD, Blu-ray will be in europe for at least 10 more years. most HD downloads from PSN video store are 7GB+ so thats 4-5 hours of downloading in UK. Blu-ray is far from Dead for offline people and slow MBPS people.

Also People, Microsoft recently Made Blu-ray the future format disc for Windows & Games for Windows.

cuz everyone will just throw out their bluray players randomly and bluray will cease to exist...nope, people got the ps3 for bluray or paid 400+ for one wont just throw it out, article is stupid

I personally think there is no better copy than a physical hard copy.

Honestly, was this article written by neanderthals? Sure, for most people dvd upscaling is good enough, but only until bluray players hit that overwhelmingly tempting $100-150 price range, which sony did announce a few months ago to be this winter! Even when movies are sold at a 4k resolution, the 500gb bluray discs should be more than sufficient!

Yep, I have to agree with the majority of you. I keep seeing this "Download" you movie crap. I am sorry, the internet Bandwidth will not provide this for many many years.

Bluray ain't going away anytime soon.

Now didn't someone say Blu-Ray would be dead by 2009 and its still here then they said said by 2011 and now they are saying 2012 people need to stop predecting whats gonna happen and just watch. And Blu-Ray wont die if Sony keep useing BLU RAY for the consoles.

In the year 3012 my graphics card will be powerful enough to create a death ray, I will call it a blu ray. I will have my graphics card transport me back in time by using its ability to create dark energy. Then i will write a retarded comment in 2008 about the year 2012 and disentegrate every one against me with my blu ray. everyone got that. zap, zap.

It's not like Sony didn't accomplish their objective....to use the ps3 as a catalyst to get Blu-ray into homes.

Blu-ray was set-up to fail....Incomplete spec, more expensive, loaded with features that NOBODY will EVER use, although video was equal and sound was better, it was also more expensive, and not just by a little either. This format was built to fail and somehow kicked the living sh!t out of HD-DVD.....one reason...PS3, plain and simple.

When people bought PS3's and 360's all of a sudden you picked a side and were thrust into both a console war and a format war, which got so bitter at times, that it had professional writers, movie directors, and certain gaming show hosts acting like children.

HD-DVD should have won, they had everything to win, except the support of 170 companies, which included studio backing. And don't give me that "if teh 360 had HD-DVD built-in, it would have won"....for the last time no it wouldn't because that console using HD-DVD for it's games built-in would skyrocketed the price to $1000 at launch in '05, and that would've been STILL selling it at a loss.

sorry, digital downloads WON'T happen anytime soon, until everyone has TB HDDs and mega high bandwidths (still takes like 2 hours to download a movie)
but I do agree with the statement that a new form of physical media will over take optical discs, but again, not anytime soo, like the article mentioned, everyone has a huge DVD collection, and when some new form of physical media comes out, you think everyone will want to switch over when DVDs are so (according to the article)"good enough"?

Where'd all the PS3 supporters go, because there isn't a single one responding to this thread. The Cell processor was designed to stream media & the PS3 is a media center. Blu-ray was a stop gap measure to kill physical formats because Hollywood would prefer we not own content. If you are a proponent of physical formats you were an HD DVD backer, because every PS3 owner knows DD is the future which is why we purchased a PS3.

It is dead right now.

bluray is Sony -- and their RIAA / MPAA partners -- wet dream DRM scheme.

Digital Download is *already* the majority of traffic on the internet -- right now.

There will *not* be another plastic disc format, all media is already moving (or moved) to Digital Distribution.

BluRay is dead because it is an anti-customer and because Digital Download makes it a totally un-compelling format.

BluRay is totally still-born.

These types of articles are pointless if you consider that most media formats will go out of style at some point. When people like this write articles, they are just grasping at straws. Really it's just an excuse to vent all their frustrations about bluray.

It's one thing if a format never catches on (like Lazer Disk). But once the public accepts a new format, it'll be a long time before they finally give up on it for another one. Which is part of the reason that DVD won't die any time soon just because of bluray. The two will most likely coexist for years to come.

Just like bluray will coexist with direct downloads for a very long time to come.

Everything will be dead. you will die. I will die. the whole world will explo.... Have you heard it's gonna be the end of the world by 2012.

you are definitely limiting your potential market if you drop physical media.. Here's an excerpt from an article i found about the statistics of people that actually have broadband at home.

"Overall, Pew found that 55 percent of American adults now have broadband access at home, up from 47 percent a year earlier and 42 percent in March 2007. By contrast, only 10 percent of Americans now have dial-up access.

Despite the increase in overall broadband adoption, though, growth has been flat among blacks and poorer Americans.

Of the Americans with no Internet access at all, about a third say they have no interest in logging on, even at dial-up speeds. Nearly 20 percent of nonusers had access in the past but dropped it. Older and lower-income Americans are most likely to be offline."

source : http://www.gmanews.tv/story...

These critics are forgetting that this country is multidimensional market to deal with and only a multidimensional approach would work. Many people still do not have broadband, so why in the hell would we even think of a media, that in the long run, always becomes more accessible for a great quantity of consumers? I'm sorry but physical media is here to stay for a while.

-I'm saving this comment for future use

OK this is stupid. Blu-ray will not be dead because of downloads and heres why. A game comes on PS3 for both disc and download, I have a cable internet connection, but the download will still take the better part of my day so I just go to the store and buy the game and instantly play it on PS3. Blu-ray will never die unless they find a way to make downloads instantanious at an affordable price otherwise disc based games are here to stay

Is it because the Mayan calendar ends in 2012?
I think we'll all be dead by then any way, that's why I don't waste my time with a shiet console like the 360...AHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHHHAHA

STUPID BABOONS....AHHAHAHHAHAHHAHHHA

Well I have to disagree with this statement.
2 formats can co exist together.
VHS & DVD
DVD & Blu-ray
Blu-ray & Digital Downloadable movies
Ofcourse nothing lasts forever VHS died after DVD came out, DVD will die after Blu-ray comes out, and Blu-ray will disappear one day.
But I still believe 2 formats can co exist together cuz not everyone wants a digital copy of a movie some people like myself want a product to where to can hold it in your hand and look at it not view it through a screen like dumb ass.

SONY is doomed again...

This article does have the stench of a disgruntled HD-DVD supporter. However I do agree Digital downloads will become a viable option.

DVD will still be supported for time to come and blu-ray will no doubt continue to rise. I see DVD becoming the VHS what VHS was to DVD when DVD came around. At first it's still here but eventually it will phase out. Nothing is forever.

as soon as i hear that in 5 years we will be streaming hd movies directly into our t.v's i cant help but think that according to the 1960's we should be living on the moon and have flying cars.

doomed is the blu ray. why do you think micro already started on letting you download full games, for the hell of it? next gen is all about downloads. at least blu ray will do better then that beta max thing.

i dont think the ps3 will be doomed though im sure sony can hold the blu rays weight like it does with umd. but by the time the next box comes out it will look like a last gen feature. dvd's what tha? thats like having cassettes. lol

Feb 2009 everything goes HD

so expect bluray players to go down and more and more people will by bluray

i give bluray 7 more years

i think you look more like a dumbas$ looking at a box of a movie that you seen a few times. bring on the downloads i dont need anymore dvd cases taking up space

Physical formats will be here for a long while yet.

You would think some of you guys had substantial stock in Sony or something the way you get fired up over someones opinion. I love my bluray collection and hope it sticks for a long time to come but he has a couple of valid points in this article. Plus, even though blu is still growing, if you look at the general adoption rate two years in and then compare to the adoption rate of DVD after its first two years there is no comparison.... not even close. Bluray with all its wonderful picture and audio quality is no DVD in terms of being the next great wave.

I agree with the article 100%.This is why I havent bought a bluray player.I received a ps3 as a gift andonly own 1 movie. Its just not worth it.DvD quality is perfect and the average person doesnt want to have to rebuy there collection over and over.Technology is jus tmoving to fast nowadays for a media like this to stick around

hard copies will always be #1, heck, now when you buy a blu ray disk or dvd it comes with a digital copy for your pc and ipod.

blu ray is going to be around for a while, so theres no need for but-hurt hd dvd fans to cry about it

But if you're still alive your Bluray discs will still work

Blu-ray will neva die. Do you know why> Because digital downloas are stupid. That's why.

But there is two problems with this article it is possible that it can fail and be replaced with something that can play twice the resolution QUad HD but then again it can be the standard like dvd today. Most people in the U.S. will probably own a tv that has HD resolution of some sort by that year. LOOK AT THIS ARTICLE back in 2004.
http://www.physorg.com/news...

With broadband provider talking about putting caps on how much bandwidth people can use a month, it just proves that HD downloading wont take off. I don't see Blu-ray going anywhere for many years!

I'm sick of this download crap. THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN ANYTIME SOON. The speed of internet in the US will prevent this from happening anytime soon and not only that alot of providers are starting to test caps and if they go into effect then you can be sure this wont happen. I think before people talk about the age of digital downloads that they think about the age of incredibly slow US internet access.

The way we use content has already changed & that change is going to hit the mass-market consumer long before Blu-ray has a chance to succeed. Last weekend I sat on my couch & watched the first two seasons of Dexter without having to get up to change a disc. The convenience offered by digital distribution far outweighs the benefit of Blu-ray. Not sure why everyone thinks digital distribution means downloading from the internet, because I've purchased the bulk of my digital content from Best Buy in a clamshell over the course of the past 12 years.

They make it slow for us because they like to milk us for money.

Are we, the people of the United States, cash cows ourselves?

Hahaha!

This was a terrible article. His points were horrid.

For example:

" BD-Live is a joke. It's a second-rate attempt to offer interactive features that HD DVD did first and much, much better."

That is in no way something that will kill Blu Ray. Yeah, it's not good for it, but will people really not buy BD just because of this "optional" feature?

It seemed like the author thought something like this: "Hmm, I have 2 pretty good reasons.... **** it I'll just bs 3 more of them."

if you look to the past for reference then sure BD will have a rival in 2012. Look at VHS vs DVD. It wasn't too awful long ago that DVD took over as the dominate format and it will inevitably happen to BD. No one is denying that. But like the beginning of the article states " the quality is not there yet." is painfully true. Anyone who has used any download, XBL, PSN,etc... knows this. You are, for older movies getting the same low quality transfer at a high res., which basically looks horrible. The high def versions don't look much better. Besides, if you want to own the movie then you need a way to make a hard copy after downloading it which means more hardware. Besides, I don't feel like using up all my HDD space on any machine.

yeah well according to the ancient Mayas we will be all dead by 2012...so in some way it makes sense XD

I remember some article in the newspaper about restructing the infrastructure of Internet cables in the netherlands for highspeed internet. And they didn't want to do it because according to a reseearcher we won't need high speeds connections untill 20 years from now...it's a shame though =(

with 50Gb downloads WE DO NEED IT >_<.

I can see the market for downloading content. I just downloaded an episode of the universe and bought PixelJunk Eden from the ps store, so of course there will be exclusives that you can only download.
Sadly The people that honestly believe downloads will replace a physical copy, they just aren't that bright. I would much rather own for my own hands to touch the vinyl copy of the beatles white album and be able to see it in my collection, than to download the songs from Itunes and be left with an e-bill and no physical product.
truck downloads.

I just don't see physical discs disappearing. I can't imagine not having a physical box and disc. I love box art on video games and movie boxes. I thought CDs were supposed to disappear when DD of music happened, but they're still here. I still buy CDs and then import them to itunes to put them on my ipod. I don't like the idea of companies restricting how you can play your media. I can see companies trying the same things with DD. I think if blu-ray would fail it would only be replaced by another physical media. DD wouldn't reach as many ppl as physical media. There's still so many ppl that don't have internet period or have dial-up. Some ppl just can't afford to drop the cash to have high speed internet.

Look who is talkin

In order to get a true 1080p picture the video bit rates have to VERY HIGH. 28 MBPS+, that means the file has to be MASSIVE. Now lets pile on the adavanced audio codecs. Another massive file. Have fun downloading that. If I were an ISP I would be a little upset that my infrustructure i spend millions on is going to be used for movies and tv watching mainly.

Look I love Blu ray. I am an early adopter. I have tried DD and hate how long it takes. And do not get me started how they come with with either 2 channel STEREO (how 80's) or lossy 5.1 audio (how 90's).

Oh yeah, do you guy really think 1080p will last long? We will have 2000p+ tv's on the market within a few years at decent prices( still a four figure price tag). You want DD for THOSE massive files?

Wow this sounds like someone drank some pretty strong haterade when they wrote this article. I still love how people say that DLC will replace physical media but they're forgetting a enormous hurdle: People want to have something physically that they can say is theirs. Most of the general public would prefer to have an optical disc or some physical form factor than movies being stored on a drive. Hell most common users don't even back up their HD's so why would they keep their movie collection on it. Another big drawback with this is portability. If your friend doesn't have the same movie you would have to wait for him to download it. That's not convenient for a lot of people. Maybe Blu-Ray will be dead in when internet connections improve from their current state but I don't think this will happe for quite some time.

Personally I like to have a physical copy, and I like going to the store to get it too. I Also have a 20gb download cap on my connection !! So if I have to download 5gb per movie, you can imagine that I won't have long till I start paying 1.25$ extra per gb...

If you haven't read it, don't. You'll waste a couple of minutes of your life.

i dont agree at all. hd movie downloads are stupid people want something they can touch. people already download movies for free they wont start paying for it

yes he is an idiot. does not write like someone who has journalism writting skills. sounds like some retart who is pissed off cuz he dont like BL. I personally dont like blueray only cuz its really not that great. The picture quality is so damn good, it looks fake. spiderman on BR looks way too cg..lol..when i was at the theater it didnt look like that. and i download all the movies in hd. but for collectors they will always like hard media. i choose to go digital, which i believe the whole world is goin, so i agree with the fact that BR will not be around as long a dvd was or is going to be but its not a failure.