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Evidence Mounts That Blu-ray Will Struggle

Blu-ray won't replace DVDs as the leading format for selling and renting movies to consumers, says Stewart Wolpin at Digital Tech Consulting. He says there just isn't enough juice in the new format for consumers to plunk down several hundred dollars to make the switch.

"DTC does not expect Blu-ray to represent any more than a third of all DVD devices sold five years hence," he writes.

Lucreto6573d ago

All it would take is a date for the discontinuation of DVD disks and people will start swapping.

There is not much of a morket for DD when I am living and they need to find a why to play them on TVs not PC monitors

kewlkat0076573d ago

I sometimes hear people say the same about Businesses pulling the plug on Windows and jumping to linux.

Right now Hardcore people are buying Blu-Ray, it's just not main stream yet, you just don't cut a market like that.

Saint Sony6573d ago

There is not enough HD equipments in homes yet to make blu-ray stand out as a clear winner. Also it is going to take several years before HD will become a main standard in TV/movie industry. Those years will bring other HD media competitors to market and blu-ray, as good as it is now, may just die in the end as a weakest of HD formats available.

ericnellie6573d ago

that as soon as video stores start carrying more BRs for rental, I think that will definitely raise customer awareness. My local Blockbuster video told me that they will start increasing their BR inventory x 5 starting late May! I can't wait!!

dragonJP6573d ago

...to just be 'discontinued,' just like that. Can you imagine the response, the pure hate that would rain down on that move? You are talking about people who have DVD collections in the hundreds and thousands, forcing them to upgrade when frankly most movie fans are satified with DVD could be--- would be disastrous. Blu-ray will just have to persevere until it cannot afford to compete with DVD on price, and by the looks of it, that is a long way off....

Cryos6572d ago

1. People had large VHS collections, and then were told to switch. It happened. The difference here is that Blu-Ray is backward compatable with DVD. That is probably 1 area that is slowing growth of Blu-ray sales. Why buy a blu-ray of a movie I have on DVD, when my player will upconvert and play it?

2. This will not change overnight. It will take a period of years for DVDs to be phased out in favor of blu-ray. This is evident in every other physical media change. Records to tapes, tapes to CDs, VHS to DVD. There is a period of overlap, where some are resistant to change until it becomes more affordable.

3. Let's not forget what the impact of the high definition tvs has on this equation. in 2009, the US is going all digital. This means more HDTVs sold, and lower prices for the HDTVs. Expect a surge in HDTVs and Blu-ray players sold that year.

+ Show (2) more repliesLast reply 6572d ago
Tmac6573d ago

Ya, Blu-Ray will begin to struggle when it has been doing just fine. Don't listen to this drivel, if you wanna know for yourself, educate yourself. Use the facts.

DrRage776573d ago (Edited 6573d ago )

how would you define that blu-ray is doing fine? you mean the statistic that came out that showed that the attach rate of blu-ray discs to blu-ray players is about 1.1? yeah, sure seems like business for blu-ray is booming lol there was also a statistic that came out that showed that standalone blu-ray players (not the ps3) actually sold LESS units than stand alone hd-dvd players during the format "war". the blu-ray camp always includes every ps3 sold in their numbers when showing the number of peoeple that bought a blu-ray player, yet that is misleading since a majority of those people did not buy a ps3 for movies, they bought it for gaming. that is why the dismal attach rate of 1.1 blu-ray movies sold per blu-ray player is so low. you can't have it both ways, saying that blu-ray is doing great, and then ignore the fact that blu-ray movies are not selling well at all.

people are NOT going to adopt blu-ray in masses anytime soon because the cheapest blu-ray player you can find currently is $400 and blu-ray movies typcially sell for $25-$30 each. players were cheaper when hd-dvd was still a factor, but the same month hd-dvd was discontinued, blu-ray players have slowly been going back up to their original prices of $400 and $500. everyone is touting "but it is high def and the picture is so much better", but the simple fact is that only about 30% of the people in the u.s. have high-def capable tv's. the other 70% do not. so go and ask 70% of the people out there if they are going to want to spend $425 (player and one movie) to watch one movie in high-def (which they can't anyway), or spend $15 for a regular dvd for their current dvd player. people are happy with upconverting dvd players that cost $50, rather than shell out $400 for something that they may or may not be able to see a large improvement on. it's as simple as that.

LastDance6573d ago (Edited 6573d ago )

dr. rage...this year, there will be a massive dip in the prices of LCD and plasma tvs. when you get a bigger tv..you CAN notice the MASSIVE difference. I have a 46" myself and a surround system. Once you see a NEW(not old and upscaled) movie on bluray.. there's no turning back.

Its common knowledge...when people get bigger tvs..theyll want higher quality disks. I know many people who've already started their blu ray collections. Just normal average joe kinds of ppl. right now the worlds sliding towards a recession.. ;)

ukilnme6573d ago

I have owned a PS3 since Oct.'07. I watched my first Blu-ray movie about a week ago, Apocalypto. I have to say I was amazed with the opening jungle seen alone. Blu-ray is clearly better than DVD if you have a HD TV to see the difference.

I honestly believe that it will catch on if the prices of the players, the disks and HD TVs come down significantly. Everything is priced so high right now that the average Joe has to think about paying the mortgage/rent, feeding the family and putting gas in the car. I am not trying to over generalize it but until the economy turns around here in the US, the average Joe is not going to consider Blu-ray as an option.

xfrgtr6573d ago

DrRage77 you don't know what youre talking about Blu-ray Disc Sales Up 351 Percent :Blu-ray disc sales jumped 351 percent in the first three months of this year, according to Home Media Magazine research.

The high-def disc format benefited from increased awareness of the category and Toshiba's decision to exit the HD DVD business at the end of March, ceding victory to Blu-ray.

Home Media reports that the rise in Blu-ray sales led to the first increase in consumer spending on home video in two years. In 2007, total sales fell 0.5 percent and they decreased 0.4 percent in 2006.

But the publication writes that consumer spending was up one percent in the first three months of 2008, totaling $5.51 billion, compared to the first three months of 2007.

Sales rose 2.3 percent while rental spending fell 1.6 percent.

The rise in Blu-ray sales explains why the Hollywood film studios are anxious to promote the new high-def disc. Many executives believe it can help revitalize the dormant DVD industry.

Home Media writes that I Am Legend, starring Will Smith, was the number one selling title. Enchanted was second, followed by American Gangster, Bee Movie and 3:10 to Yuma.
http://www.n4g.com/tech/New...

Armyless6573d ago

and so are the anonymous disagree'rs. Look at his comment record. Posts a comment RARELY.

dragonJP6573d ago

...agree that once you have experienced HD in 'Piano Black' (40" & up), you just can't go back, the details are so clear and crisp that everything else pales in comparison. My brother just got his first HDTV, a 47" LCD, and it was a real treat to watch his jaw drop down to the floor just like mine did all those years ago on a cold November night in 2005. There is nothing like turning on an HDTV for the first time in your own space...

Still, just because you WANT to upgrade doesn't mean that you can afford it, or that you'll do it at all costs. For a lot of people right now, that's just not possible when gas and groceries will break ya....

dcbronco6572d ago

Here is some educational reading for you.
Blu-Ray is not selling And Sony lies a lot.
http://www.pocket-lint.co.u...
Blu-Stand-alones sells so low NPD won't release numbers.
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.c...
Sony losing so much money on games division they can't cut prices.
http://www.next-gen.biz/ind...

+ Show (4) more repliesLast reply 6572d ago
PS360WII6573d ago

I can see where he is coming from. It's not saying BluRay isn't going to do well it's just saying DVD is still gonna be around.

Kaz Hirai6573d ago

The Blu-Ray of Death is stronger than ever!

28 days until Judgment Day, Nazisoft!

MWAH-HA-HA-HA!!!

codeazrael6573d ago

I mean come on, we all hated vcrs and their inability to track worth a crap. But DVDs, especially upscaled DVDs look pretty damn good to this day! Until Bluray players come down to the prices HD DVD players were, and until alot more content is available, BR is kinda irrelevant right now, to me at least. HD only makes a dramatic difference when watching live events, but movies, meh.

Brainiac 86573d ago

This is the issue BluRay is going to have. It's more expensive, as are the BluRay players, and there is not a big enough difference in picture and audio quality to justify the switch.

Armyless6573d ago

The move will be slower to BluRay from DVD because the real benefit of BluRay is derived from buying a new HD TV. (You didn't need a new tv to enjoy the benefits of DVD over VHS).

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30°

Top Racers Need Top Gear – Introducing the Forza Horizon 6 Limited Edition Controller and Headset

Omar writes: "With the Horizon Festival coming to breathtaking Japan, you’ll need the essential gear to prove you’ve got what it takes to become a Horizon Legend as you cruise, drift and explore an open world full of spectacular driving experiences. That’s why we’re happy to announce the newest Limited Edition Xbox Wireless Controller and Wireless Headset collection, featuring inspired designs from Forza Horizon 6. The bright cyan and lime colorways celebrate the Horizon Festival’s recognition of iconic cars and hit music, with special features that are sure to impress any collector."

Read Full Story >>
news.xbox.com
Killer2020UK22d ago

Oh my, that is one gaudy design

40°

EasySMX D05 review

You can get Hall effect controllers slightly cheaper, but you'd struggle to find as feature-rich a package without some heavy, heavy sales.

70°

"It's Just So Lame" - RTGI Modder Thinks DLSS 5 Is Impressive But Shares AI Slop Sentiment

Pascal Gilcher calls DLSS 5 impressive but shares the "AI slop" sentiment, explaining the likely tech behind it and why he dislikes it.

Read Full Story >>
wccftech.com
CrimsonWing6949d ago

I fail to see how this is AI shhhhlllloooop. Looking at the different games they showed, this has made many of them look far better.

isarai_lee48d ago (Edited 48d ago )

It's AI slop because it ignores the artists intent and changes the details ESPECIALLY when it comes to character faces. The scariest part of it is introducing it as the next stage of DLSS, a feature where the current iteration already has controversy surrounding it and for quite a lot of games cannot be fully disabled. So reasonably the precident is already set for what path this could take, and it's not good

blacktiger48d ago

In case you didn't watch the video then let me point just one part. It overrides the lighting. Then the question of what is the point of ray tracing cost and so on. Many of the lighting deletes shadow, including shadow on the face like eyes even chin.

Chard48d ago

Why stop at art when it comes to human input - why not just have AI play the game for us, remove human input altogether

theshizer48d ago

If you don’t like it, just don’t enable it. Personally I think it looks great from the videos I have seen.

isarai_lee48d ago

And what about when you can't? Cause there's plenty of games where you cannot fully disable dlss already, i mean we're well into an era where it's a major crutch for developers to cover up their cut corners, why would this be any different?

blacktiger48d ago

You are playing with people's money and allow Nvidia to scam you.

In case you didn't watch the video then let me point just one part. It overrides the lighting. Then the question of what is the point of ray tracing cost. This is all lie to raise the cost of the graphic card.

Andrew33648d ago

Making characters look more realistic not ok because we want the developer to decide on how the game was intended to look. - Internet

Change entire game through mods thus changing how the developers intended the game to be is ok. - Internet

isarai_lee48d ago

Something consumers can do to a product after they have purchased it, entirely optional and can always be undone with a fresh install

VS

The leading gaming hardware manufacturer making this the next iteration of the main AA/Upscaling technique that is heavily relied upod by modern devs and is not optional in most games.

Not at all the same but nice try

jwillj2k448d ago

At the moment you need 2 5090’s just to get an image on the screen so this is all vaporware until proven otherwise.

Andrew33648d ago

The good news is you can just not use it as well.

Christopher48d ago

It's all about choice in the end. But, I would say that calling it 'more realistic' is quite a stretch. It looks like AI art, and that's rarely realistic.

Urrakia3448d ago

All the comments I see are reminding me of how we got to the current state of gaming when microtransactions were first introduced: "It's completely optional guys, we promise! If you don't like it just don't buy it!"

I think we all know how that ended up.

Popsicle48d ago (Edited 48d ago )

I had the same exact thought the first time this was brought up in a separate article about a week ago. Took me straight back to the conversations surrounding “horse armor.” Just don’t buy it they said. Years later, many IPs I previously enjoyed are so infected with monetization schemes that I don’t even consider purchasing them anymore.

DLSS 5 and the like are the same thing wrapped in a different package. History rhymes but many of us never learn from it.

blacktiger48d ago

Biggest Scam. Overrides lighting and shadow. So why keep Ray tracing? It's all a scam to raise graphic card. We now see Nvidia with Microsoft downturn anything against them. Sony is next!